Energy transition – daily intermittency and Texas

When the transition to solar energy began moving at exponential pace a few years ago, the biggest open question was how we’d solve the daily intermittency problem. For example, what happens when there is cloud cover? And what happens during the evening peak (4pm-9pm)?

The answer was batteries. As battery prices continue to come crashing down, we’re starting to see this play out. This graph shows how this transition is playing out.

In April 2021, solar power was already dominating consumption. Now, thanks to batteries, stored power is beginning to take a big chunk of the evening peak as well.

I see this play out on a micro-level as well. This is exactly how we power our home. We avoid using any power from the grid through the evening peak because of the battery (80% contribution) and conscious usage (i.e., we avoid using heavy usage appliances – 20% contribution).

This combination of solar and batteries is going to increasingly become a no-brainer combination in most places that receive decent sunlight – as Texas continues to demonstrate. For years, California was the undisputed leader in solar deployments and battery storage. But Texas is on pace to add more grid batteries than any other state and could end 2024 ahead of California in total solar deployment. This rise is thanks to Texas’ famously decentralized energy marketplace – energy entrepreneurs are quick to spot a good deal.

Long may this continue.

Note: We still don’t have a solution for seasonal intermittency. Given the pace of innovation here, I hope to have a similarly positive update on that in 2027.

Writing on the inside of the ring

I read a story nearly twenty-five years about a young man who received a ring as a gift from his dying father. He thought of the ring as his good luck charm and wore it every day since.

A few years later, he went through a horrible spell and was on the verge of losing everything he owned after a spate of bad luck. Out of luck, he just walked aimlessly for hours and sat down near the side of the road.

He saw his Dad’s ring, took it out of his finger and began playing with it as he contemplated how hopeless it all seemed. Just as he did so, he noticed some writing on the inside.

It said “This too shall pass.”

He was elated – it felt like a message from his late father. He took the message to heart and decided to fight his way back.

And of course, the story goes onto have a positive ending after that moment.

Years later, I still recall that story from time to time. “This too shall pass” is the essence of the Bhagavad Gita in Hindu philosophy. It is also a big part of stoic philosophy.

It takes it place in the pantheon of timeless philosophical wisdom because it tells us the truth about this experience and provides instant perspective.

There’s no point getting too high or too low about this current moment.

Good or bad, this too shall pass.

AFOG

“Frame failure as an AFOG (Another F*cking Opportunity for Growth). You are more likely to recover from failure if you invest energy into unpacking the lessons.” | Prof Carole Robin

I was reflecting on a couple of my recent failures and chuckled as I remembered reading this.

It gets to my recent note about ordeals. It is no fun going through them – but once we get through them, we might as well soak in all the learning.

The goal isn’t to avoid failures or ordeals. That isn’t going to happen.

The goal is to experience different kinds… and get better each time.

Productive disagreements

The art of productive disagreements is to ignore the specific issue at hand and, instead, figure out the underlying principle at the source of the disagreement.

Two things happen as a result –

(1) When we’re aligned on the principle, it becomes much easier to debate alternative tactics to achieve the end outcome

(2) When we’re misaligned, we can either debate it, agree to disagree, or choose to escalate further (in case this is a professional disagreement).

Either way, we’re able to make progress.

16 years

This blog turned 16 on Saturday. There have been 6,674 posts in those 5,844 days.

I sometimes joke that this blog should have been titled “a reminder a day” because of how hard it is to learn.

To learn and not to do is not to learn. So, we only learn something when it becomes part of how we operate. That in turn means we change every time we learn something. We change our actions and, in time, shape our identity.

Change is hard however. That means the best thing we can do to inspire ourselves to change is to consistently remind ourselves to do so.

I didn’t know all this when I started. I didn’t know I was signing up 6700+ reminders over the next 16 years.

But I’m glad for it. I’ve definitely changed the shape of my learning curve as a result and become a better human being for it.

That doesn’t mean I fail or fall any less. I’ve fallen on my face many a time over these years. But, thanks to this practice, I’ve learned that the only thing that matters is to bounce forward. Failure isn’t the falling down, it is the staying down.

Perhaps most of all, I’ve been on a learning journey to focus more on what I control.

I don’t always get it right and have a lot of room to improve here.

But I’m playing the long game. So, here’s to doing better in the year 17.

Thank you for being part of the journey. I appreciate it.

Chirping

I spent a good chunk of time recently sitting outdoors and listening to the birds chirping.

Natural sounds have a way of being peaceful. This setting was no exception.

I’ve sat in that same spot so many times over the past couple of years. I’ve rarely heard the birds chirping. That’s because there’s always some internal noise from my own thoughts or external noise from conversation.

A good reminder that peace is always within reach.

It just requires us to pause and pay attention.